## Tuesday, December 18, 2012

### Frustrating Math

My so called new approach to the 6 max tables has produced losses of nearly \$5, but in limited hands one could claim simple variance.  After responding to a comment left by Zin in which I replied about the quandry of extracting value or going for a quick takedown in hands.  I looked over PT thinking perhaps I am not betting heavy enough, but as far as the hands played under the "new approach" the fact is KK and QQ has been out flopped with various Villains flopping a set 3 times and I have recieved those two hands only 17 times total.  To give you insight as to how rare this is or should be the fact is at a 6 max table when I am dealt a pocket pair only 1 in 4 times will an opponent have a pair as well whether higher or lower.  Then add to that fact that opponent will only flop a set once every 8 times so in order to have had a set flopped on me three times, by the numbers this should have happened only once every 32 times.  Every 4 times I am dealt a pair someone else will have one and once in 8 they will flop a set, so I should have gotten the QQ and KK 96 times before I was up against 3 flopped sets, yet it has happened to me in the first 17 instances.

That's the crazy thing about math and poker.  Although I ran agaist something that should happen once every 32 times and I am on the poor end of it once every 6 times, over the long run, 100,000..........200,000............. maybe a million hands, in the end, it will all even out and the numbers overall will be as they should.  In the here and now, however, damn it can be just so damn frustrating.

Play well.

1. FD remember one thing online vs live, live you have 3 burn cards vs online has 0 burn cards, how much difference that makes i have no idea.

2. Zin, the burn cards prevent any possible cheating (like card marking) but have no effect on the randomness of the following cards.

3. Mr Subliminal, yes i know burn cards prevent any possible cheating playing live, playing online there is no burn cards so them 3 cards that are in play now have to make a difference in the overall math.

4. How about glass is half full approach? With this much bad against you now, you'll be due for a nice run good soon. :-)

Patrick

Http://poker.toddsville.com/

5. Zin, had we been playing with a predefined, fixed 49-card deck, then yes the mathematics would be different. However since our 3 burn cards are randomly selected, their "removal" does not affect any probability calculations i.e. we still assume a 52-card deck. All 52 cards are in play whether we burn 0 cards, 3 cards, or 5 cards.